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On October 21, 2019, there was an election for a candidate to represent Northumberland-Peterborough South in the Federal government.  

Predictions and Results

Philippe J. Fournier at 338Canada used polls plus demographics plus history of voting to make predictions of the vote,  He also looks at each Riding.  Eric Grenier at the CBC did something similar.

Here are the predictions and actual results

  Predictions 2015 actual 2019 Actual
Party Poll
average
Seats CBC
Seats
Local
Riding *
2015
Poll
2015
Seats
2015
Local *
National
Vote
National
Seats
Local
Vote
Local
Votes
Conservative 32% 125 124 37% 31.9% 99 39.6% 34.4%  121  39.7% 27,385
Liberal 32% 142 136 35% 39.5% 184 42.5% 33.1%  157  36.2% 24,977
NDP 18% 35 36 16% 19.7% 44 14.8% 15.9%  24  13.9% 9,615
Green 7.7% 2 1 8.5% 3.5% 1 3.1%  6.5%  3  8.0% 5,524
Bloc Quebecois 7.0% 33 40 n.a. 4.7% 10 n.a.  7.7%  32  - -
Peoples Party 2.7% 1 1 2.4% n.a. n.a. n.a.  1.64%  0  2.1% 1,460
Turnout         68.3%   71.3% 68.4%   77.3% 69,445

* Local Riding is Northumberland-Peterborough South
There were 484 rejected ballots in the local riding.

Note that Jody Wilson-Raybould won her seat as an independent but Jane Philpott did not.  No party leader has resigned (yet) as a result of the polls although PPC leader Maxime Bernier lost his seat.

2019 prediction percentages are rounded to 2 significant figures; seats are rounded to whole numbers.

With 338 seats up for grabs, 170 seats were needed for a majority.

Of the 26M registered electors in Canada, 4.7M voted at advanced polls. 

Below shows what the winner had as his bio.

Conservative Party of Canada

Philip Lawrence, Lawyer, lives in Orono and worked at Sun-Life. He is 40 years old.
Philip was elected at a nomination meeting on 2 March 2019 - details reported here.

lawrenceBio:

Nominated as Candidate for the Conservative Party in Northumberland-Peterborough South

  • Lifelong Conservative
  • Lawyer with expertise in tax law
  • 10 years experience working as a leader in Financial Services
  • Established and positive track record managing and mentoring professionals
  • International public speaker
  • Living in Orono Ontario with his wife of 14 years and two children

Contact:

Tel: (905) 375-5519  
 Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.    

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